Chancellor Rachel Reeves is facing a truly taxing question after a proposal to levy the banking sector sent stocks into a tailspin on Friday, erasing £6.4 billion in value. The question, prompted by an IPPR thinktank report, is whether to target banks for much-needed revenue, a move that the market has already signalled it would fiercely oppose.
The context for this dilemma is twofold: a gaping £40 billion hole in the public finances and the £22 billion annual cost of paying interest on reserves created under quantitative easing (QE). The IPPR has presented a windfall tax as a neat solution to both problems, arguing it would reclaim unfair profits and bolster the treasury.
The market, however, is already feeling the heat from this debate. The share prices of the UK’s largest banks, including NatWest and Lloyds, fell sharply on the mere suggestion of the tax. This immediate and severe reaction serves as a powerful preview of the potential economic fallout should the Chancellor proceed.
For Reeves, the path forward is fraught with risk. Opting for the tax could be portrayed as a move for fiscal justice, but it could also alienate the City and, according to critics, choke off the lending needed for economic recovery. Resisting the tax would please the markets but leave a £40 billion problem unsolved, making this one of the most critical decisions of the upcoming budget.